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| An early PBA Clasico in the first round of the playoffs? It's possible! Nuki Sabio/PBA |
By Ivan Saldajeno
One gameday and three games left, and the race to the other semifinal berth and even the twice-to-beat bonuses in the playoff first round is nearing its climax. With all but one team playing tomorrow still in contention for a higher seeding, how will the PBA Philippine Cup playoff picture end up? Let's look at eight possible scenarios. First, the preliminaries.
The rules:
Top 2 teams will enter semifinals outright. The first round of the playoffs will pit off: 3 vs. 10, 4 vs. 9, 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7 (3-6 with twice-to-beat advantage). The knockout second round will have 3-10 winner vs. 6-7 winner and 4-9 winner vs. 5-8 winner. Ties will only be broken via quotient system.
Team Standings as of Today (only among the top 10 teams)
ROS 9-2
SMB 8-2
TNT 8-3
ALA 8-3
BGSM 6-5
MER 5-5
GP 5-5
PF 5-5
BB 4-6
NLEX 4-7
Games Tomorrow:
2:00 PM-Purefoods vs. Barako Bull
4:30 PM-Blackwater vs. San Miguel
7:30 PM-GlobalPort vs. Meralco
Previous Results to Consider:
SMB def. ROS, 87-79
MER def. BB, 112-108
GP def. BB, 91-81
ALA def. TNT, 100-98
PF def. GP, 81-75
ALA def. SMB, 66-63
BGSM def. PF, 89-66
MER def. BGSM, 109-99
PF def. MER, 77-74
GP def. BGSM, 98-77
BB def. NLEX, 92-87
TNT def. SMB, 107-101
ALA-SMB-TNT Head-to-Head Quotient:
ALA-1.031
SMB-0.948
TNT-1.02
BGSM-GP-PF Head-to-Head Quotient:
BGSM-1.012
GP-1.095
PF-0.896
BGSM-MER-PF Head-to-Head Quotient
BGSM-1.074
MER-1.04
PF-0.877
BB-MER-PF Head-to-Head Quotient:
BB-0.964 (Pending PF game)
MER-1.005
PF-1.041 (Pending BB game)
BB-GP-PF Head-to-Head Quotient:
BB-0.89 (Pending PF game)
GP-1.025
PF-1.08 (Pending BB game)
Now, the scenarios:
1. If Purefoods, Blackwater, and GlobalPort win,-Alaska enters semis at 2nd, TNT finishes 3rd, SMB finishes 4th, GlobalPort finishes 5th, Ginebra finishes 6th, Purefoods finishes 7th, Meralco finishes 8th, BB finishes 9th, NLEX finishes 10th.
2. If Purefoods, Blackwater, and Meralco win-Alaska enters semis at 2nd, TNT finishes 3rd, SMB finishes 4th, Ginebra finished 5th, Meralco finishes 6th, Purefoods finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, BB finishes 9th, NLEX finishes 10th.
3. If Purefoods, San Miguel, and GlobalPort win-SMB enters semis at 1st, ROS finishes 2nd, ALA finishes 3rd, TNT finishes 4th, GlobalPort finishes 5th, Ginebra finishes 6th, Purefoods finishes 7th, Meralco finishes 8th, BB finishes 9th, NLEX finishes 10th.
4. If Purefoods, San Miguel, and Meralco win-SMB enters semis at 1st, ROS finishes 2nd, ALA finishes 3rd, TNT finishes 4th, Ginebra finished 5th, Meralco finishes 6th, Purefoods finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, BB finishes 9th, NLEX finishes 10th.
5. If Barako Bull, Blackwater, and GlobalPort win-Alaska enters semis at 2nd, TNT finishes 3rd, SMB finishes 4th, GlobalPort finishes 5th, Ginebra finishes 6th, and NLEX finishes 10th. The 7th-9th places will depend on Barako Bull's winning margin.
a. If Barako Bull wins by 6 or more, BB finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and Meralco finishes 9th.
b. If Barako Bull wins by 4 or 5, Meralco finishes 7th, BB finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
c. If Barako Bull wins by 3, Meralco finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
d. If Barako Bull wins by 1 or 2, Purefoods finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
6. If Barako Bull, Blackwater, and Meralco win-Alaska enters semis at 2nd, TNT finishes 3rd, SMB finishes 4th, Ginebra finished 5th, Meralco finishes 6th, and NLEX finishes 10th. The 7th-9th places will depend on Barako Bull's winning margin.
a. If Barako Bull wins by 15 or more, BB finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
b. If Barako Bull wins by 8-14, GlobalPort finishes 7th, BB finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
c. If Barako Bull wins by 3-7, GlobalPort finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
d. If Barako Bull wins by 1 or 2, Purefoods finishes 7th, Meralco finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
7. If Barako Bull, San Miguel, and GlobalPort win-SMB enters semis at 1st, ROS finishes 2nd, ALA finishes 3rd, TNT finishes 4th, GlobalPort finishes 5th, Ginebra finishes 6th, and NLEX finishes 10th. The 7th-9th places will depend on Barako Bull's winning margin.
a. If Barako Bull wins by 6 or more, BB finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and Meralco finishes 9th.
b. If Barako Bull wins by 4 or 5, Meralco finishes 7th, BB finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
c. If Barako Bull wins by 3, Meralco finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th
d. If Barako Bull wins by 1 or 2, Purefoods finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th
8. If Barako Bull, San Miguel, and Meralco win-SMB enters semis at 1st, ROS finishes 2nd, ALA finishes 3rd, TNT finishes 4th, Ginebra finished 5th, Meralco finishes 6th, and NLEX finishes 10th. The 7th-9th places will depend on Barako Bull's winning margin.
a. If Barako Bull wins by 15 or more, BB finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
b. If Barako Bull wins by 8-14, GlobalPort finishes 7th, BB finishes 8th, and Purefoods finishes 9th.
c. If Barako Bull wins by 3-7, GlobalPort finishes 7th, Purefoods finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
d. If Barako Bull wins by 1 or 2, Purefoods finishes 7th, GlobalPort finishes 8th, and BB finishes 9th.
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