Kaya may have routed Laos, 6-0, but after Loyola's win against Ceres, Laos could still make the semifinals! From Kaya's Facebook page |

**Ivan Saldajeno**

Following Loyola's 1-0 win against Ceres last night, Laos, the only UFL Division 2 side in Group A, aka the PFF-Smart Club Championship quarterfinals' "group of death" featuring three strong Division 1 clubs, still has a shot at making a shock semifinal entry. However, like how the Tacloban-based club thought after the group draw, it's gonna be very tough. Here is the league table as of now:

(Pts-GF-GA-GD)

Loyola 6-5-0-5

Kaya 3-8-3-5

Ceres 3-3-3-0

Laos 0-0-10-(-10)

Matches Tomorrow:

4 P.M.-Loyola vs. Kaya

7 P.M.-Ceres vs. Laos

(subject to change without prior notice)

There are five main scenarios entering Monday. Here are the first three.

1. If Ceres wins and Kaya fails to win, Ceres and Loyola will enter the semis with Loyola finishing first and Ceres second.

2. If Ceres fails to win and Kaya wins, Loyola and Kaya will enter the semis with Kaya finishing first and Loyola finishing second.

3. If Ceres fails to win and Kaya draws with Loyola, Loyola and Kaya will enter the semis with Loyola finishing first and Kaya finishing second.

Now here comes the fun part. The last two scenarios will involve goal difference. First, the fourth case.

4. If Kaya and Ceres wins, a three-way tie for first place happens. Here are the sub-scenarios.

4a. If the sum of Kaya and Ceres' winning margins is at least six (e.g., Kaya wins, 3-0, and Ceres wins, 3-0), Ceres and Kaya will enter the semis.

4aa. If the sum is exactly six, Kaya finishes first and Ceres finishes second.

4ab. If the sum is at least seven, the goals scored by both clubs will factor here.

4aba. If the difference of Ceres and Kaya's winning margins is at least five (e.g., Ceres wins, 6-0, and Kaya wins, 1-0), Ceres finishes first and Kaya finishes second.

4abb. Otherwise, Kaya finishes first and Ceres finishes second.

4b. If the sum of Kaya and Ceres' winning margins is at most five (e.g., Kaya wins, 2-0, and Ceres wins, 3-0), Kaya will enter the semis. The other semifinalist will depend on the goals scored.

4ba. If the difference of Ceres and Loyola's goals is at least three (see example above), Ceres enters the semis.

4bb. Otherwise, Loyola enters the semis.

Now, like I mentioned above, Laos still has a chance to make the Final Four, but that is if Laos badly beats Ceres and Loyola badly beats Kaya, which, on paper, has a very small probability of happening. Here's Scenario 5.

4ba. If the difference of Ceres and Loyola's goals is at least three (see example above), Ceres enters the semis.

4bb. Otherwise, Loyola enters the semis.

Now, like I mentioned above, Laos still has a chance to make the Final Four, but that is if Laos badly beats Ceres and Loyola badly beats Kaya, which, on paper, has a very small probability of happening. Here's Scenario 5.

5. If Loyola and Laos win, Loyola enters the semis, while the other semifinalist will depend on the goal difference.

5a. If the difference of Loyola and Laos' respective winning margins is at least six (e.g. Loyola wins, 7-0, and Laos wins, 1-0), Kaya is eliminated.

5aa. If Laos' winning margin is at least six, Laos enters the semis.

5ab. Otherwise, Ceres enters the semis.

5aa. If Laos' winning margin is at least six, Laos enters the semis.

5ab. Otherwise, Ceres enters the semis.

5b.If the difference of Loyola and Laos' respective winning margins is at most four (e.g. Loyola wins, 5-0, and Laos wins, 1-0), Ceres is eliminated.

5ba. If Laos' winning margin is at least six, Laos enters the semis.

5bb. Otherwise, Kaya enters the semis.

5ba. If Laos' winning margin is at least six, Laos enters the semis.

5bb. Otherwise, Kaya enters the semis.

5c. If the difference of Loyola and Laos' respective winning margins is exactly five (e.g. Loyola wins, 6-0, and Laos wins, 1-0), the goals scored by Kaya, Laos, and Ceres will now play a factor here.

5ca. If the sum of Loyola and Laos' winning margins is at least 17 (e.g. Loyola wins, 11-0, and Laos wins, 6-0), Laos enters the semis.

5cb. If the sum of Loyola and Laos' winning margins is at most 13 (e.g. Loyola wins, 9-0, and Laos wins, 4-0), Laos is eliminated.

5cba. If the difference of Ceres and Kaya's goals scored is at least five (e.g. Loyola wins, 9-0, and Laos wins, 9-5), Ceres will enter the semis by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule (Ceres beat Kaya, 3-2).

5cbb. Otherwise, Kaya will enter the semis.

5cc. If the sum of Loyola and Laos' winning margins is exactly 15 (e.g., Loyola wins, 10-0, and Laos wins, 5-0), Laos, Kaya, and Ceres will be tied on goal difference. However, with Ceres scoring the least among the three if that happens, Ceres will be eliminated.

5cca. If the difference of Laos and Kaya's goals scored is at least nine (e.g. Laos wins, 9-4, and Loyola wins, 10-0), Laos will enter the semis.

5ccb. Otherwise, Kaya will enter the semis.

To summarize everything:

1. At least a draw assures Loyola an entry to the semifinals.

2. A win by Kaya puts the team to the semis.

3. Ceres needs to beat Laos and hope that Loyola holds Kaya to enter the semis.

4. Laos needs to badly beat Ceres and hope that Loyola badly beats Kaya to enter the semis.

5cba. If the difference of Ceres and Kaya's goals scored is at least five (e.g. Loyola wins, 9-0, and Laos wins, 9-5), Ceres will enter the semis by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule (Ceres beat Kaya, 3-2).

5cbb. Otherwise, Kaya will enter the semis.

5cc. If the sum of Loyola and Laos' winning margins is exactly 15 (e.g., Loyola wins, 10-0, and Laos wins, 5-0), Laos, Kaya, and Ceres will be tied on goal difference. However, with Ceres scoring the least among the three if that happens, Ceres will be eliminated.

5cca. If the difference of Laos and Kaya's goals scored is at least nine (e.g. Laos wins, 9-4, and Loyola wins, 10-0), Laos will enter the semis.

5ccb. Otherwise, Kaya will enter the semis.

To summarize everything:

1. At least a draw assures Loyola an entry to the semifinals.

2. A win by Kaya puts the team to the semis.

3. Ceres needs to beat Laos and hope that Loyola holds Kaya to enter the semis.

4. Laos needs to badly beat Ceres and hope that Loyola badly beats Kaya to enter the semis.