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QUOTIENT WATCH | Gilas now needs more than win to make FIBA WC cut

Gilas must beat Kazakhstan, but it's not yet a guarantee the team will make the World Cup. FIBA (file photo)

By Ivan Saldajeno

FOLLOWING two unexpected outcomes early Saturday, Gilas is now in a totally must-win situation against Kazakhstan in the final game of their FIBA World Cup Qualifiers campaign.

While New Zealand got the better of Lebanon as anticipated by many, only a few thought the game will go down the wire as only a Tom Abercrombie trey decided the game.

On the other hand, Jordan made shock waves by drubbing a Chinese team that struggled from the free throw and the three-point lines all game long.

The results put Jordan, Lebanon, and Gilas in a tie at 6-5.

While they may be from opposing groups (Jordan and Lebanon in Group E and Gilas in Group F), Gilas is in danger of relegation as Jordan and Lebanon own the tiebreaker due to having the better point differential.

Not to mention China's record will not be counted in the final standings due to the team being the host of the group stages, meaning Lebanon, which has the worst head-to-head point differential between the two and Jordan, can still make the World Cup despite possibly finishing fifth in Group E as technically, it will become the fourth seed.

To sum it up, winning isn't everything for Gilas as it now needs favorable results from the other games too.

Here are the games with huge bearings (home teams at the left):

Group E
Jordan vs. New Zealand
Lebanon vs. South Korea

Group F
Iran vs. Australia
Qatar vs. Japan
Kazakhstan vs. Philippines

These games will start simultaneously on Sunday night to avoid any possibility of tanking.

After Saturday's result, the only way for Gilas to make the World Cup without an influence from Group E is by finishing third in Group F, that is, as previously said in my earlier Quotient Watch post, a Gilas win at Kazakhstan and Qatar shocking Japan.

However, Qatar beating Japan, considering how Gilas blasted Qatar on Friday, will be an upset of epic proportions.

Should Japan manhandle Qatar as expected, Gilas will finish fourth in Group F since Iran owns the tiebreaker over Gilas due to the series sweep even if it loses to Australia.

Now, the results from Group E will come to play.

However, even if only one team between Jordan and Lebanon loses, Gilas will enter the World Cup as the best fourth placer provided it beats Kazakhstan. Much better if both Jordan and Lebanon bow down.

Still, a win is a must for Gilas.

Follow him on Twitter: @IvanSaldajeno