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Still in the hunt for the Top 2, Hong Kong Eastern could fall out of the Top 6. PBA Images (file photo) |
MANILA--Hong Kong Eastern's shock 29-point loss to Magnolia on Sunday night could mean a lot in the former's chase for a Top 2 finish in the PBA Commissioner's Cup eliminations.
With 16 scenarios left in play, some of those have the Long Lions in a precarious situation wherein instead of needing only one win to make the semifinals, they will fall to the other side of it, that is, only one quarterfinal loss and they are out.
The reason? Their blowout loss to the Rain Or Shine Elasto Painters earlier in the conference.
While its next game is "winnable" on paper, Eastern cannot just rest its laurels against NLEX especially since the latter actually still has a shot at making the quarterfinals outright, all the more it is fresh from a huge win against ROS led by Robert Bolick's historic 40-point, 10-assist performance.
If the Long Lions fall to the Road Warriors on Wednesday night at the Smart Araneta Coliseum and the Elasto Painters stun the TNT Tropang Giga, another team in the Top 2 chase, two evenings later at the PhilSports Arena in Pasig, both Eastern and ROS will end up tied in sixth place at 7-5.
Because the Elasto Painters hold the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their 99-81 win, they will finish sixth, which means they will play whoever ends up third in a best-of-three series, and the Long Lions will drop to seventh, meaning they will have to play the second seed with a once-to-beat disadvantage.
Even if another team, either Meralco or Ginebra, falls to 7-5, Eastern will still have the worst head-to-head quotient in case of a three-way tie for fifth, sixth, and seventh.
In fact, because both the Bolts and Gin Kings ripped the Elasto Painters, one of them will still lock up the fifth seed, ROS will stay sixth, and Eastern will still fall to seventh.
As aforementioned, though, the Long Lions still have a shot at finishing second, which means the one-win quarterfinal incentive.
The wildest possible scenario that could happen is a five-way tie for second place at 8-4 between Eastern, TNT, Meralco, Ginebra, and Converge.
Mainly boosted by blowout wins against the Tropang Giga and FiberXers, the Long Lions would have the best quotient among the five teams at plus-30, which means they will lock the second seed.
Even if either Meralco or Ginebra drops to 7-5, Eastern still has the best quotient in case of a four-way tie from 2-5.
In summary, if Eastern beats NLEX, they must hope for a Rain Or Shine win to make it to the Top 2, but if NLEX pulls off the upset, Eastern might need some help from TNT to stay within the best-of-three range.
Follow him on X: @IvanSaldajeno