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| A quick rematch between TNT and Magnolia could ensue in the quarterfinals once everything clears up on Sunday night. PBA Images (file photo) |
MANILA--Four scenarios remain in the race for the twice-to-beat advantage in the PBA Philippine Cup quarterfinals.
Only two teams, NLEX and Magnolia, have already clinched the Top 4 seeds, leaving only two spots to be contested.
Four teams, San Miguel, Ginebra, Converge, and Rain or Shine, are still in the running for the quarterfinal incentives, and a Sunday night doubleheader at the Ynares Center 1 in Antipolo will decide which among them will make the Top 4.
After all the smoke has cleared, we can see these happen in the quarterfinals later this week, and let's rank them from the most likely to the wildest.
Scenarios after PBA Sunday doubleheader
1. San Miguel clinching twice-to-beat
Three of the remaining scenarios would see San Miguel make the quarterfinals with a Top 4 berth, which would give them a 75 percent chance.
The team can book the twice-to-beat edge by simply beating NorthPort in the first game of the doubleheader.
The win would also catapult the Beermen to the top seed, which means an early finals rematch against the eighth-seeded Meralco Bolts in the quarterfinals, dropping the Road Warriors to the second seed and the Hotshots to the third seed.
The Beermen can still clinch a Top 4 berth even if they lose to the Batang Pier as long as the Elasto Painters beat the Gin Kings later Sunday.
In this case, SMB will be the third seed, and its quarterfinal opponent will depend on the final winning margin by ROS.
A win by NorthPort would eventually give NLEX the top seed in the playoffs.
2. Last grand slam king on pace to slam TNT's grand slam attempt
Also with a 75 percent probability is a quick rematch between Magnolia and TNT in the quarterfinals, considering they only faced off on Friday night.
This setup can be sealed if the Gin Kings beat the Elasto Painters, which in effect would give the Hotshots the third seed and the Tropang 5G the sixth seed.
Another scenario that could lead to the said quarterfinal pairing is if NorthPort and ROS win their last games, upping Magnolia to second and dropping TNT to seventh.
The Hotshots, as aforementioned, already sealed the twice-to-beat edge, meaning they just need one win to eliminate the Tropang 5G.
Considering Magnolia was the last team to achieve the season treble in 2014, slamming TNT's grand slam bid with a quarterfinal win would be a cute narrative.
The only way a Hotshots-Tropang 5G clash will not happen in the quarterfinals is if the Beermen and Elasto Painters win, putting Magnolia at third and TNT at seventh.
The Hotshots will face the Converge FiberXers, and the Tropang 5G will battle the Beermen in the next round instead.
3. Ginebra's Top 4 ending likely... or is it?
Ginebra only needs to beat ROS to seal the Top 4 finish, plain and simple.
If the Batang Pier also win, the Gin Kings will move up to the second seed, while a Beermen win will give the Gin Kings the fourth seed.
But what if it's the other way around?
There is a chance that Ginebra will fall out of the Top 4 with a ROS win, but this is where the final margin matters.
What the Gin Kings can do, too, is just to keep the game as close as possible, regardless of the outcome.
A loss would mean Ginebra can only finish up to fourth place, still enough to capture the twice-to-beat edge as long as the game is down to the wire.
However, if ROS manages to turn the game into a blowout in its favor, Ginebra can still fall as badly as the sixth seed with the once-to-beat disadvantage.
Let's get back to this scenario in a while.
4. Converge's only Top 4 hope
At this stage, the FiberXers must only hope for both the Batang Pier and Gin Kings to win the remaining doubleheader if they want to make the Top 4.
This would lead to a three-way tie at 8-3 and a tie between Converge and SMB for fourth place at 7-4.
With the FiberXers owning the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their 100-97 win on Wednesday night, they will hold a twice-to-beat advantage as the fourth seed against the fifth-seeded Beermen.
A win by either SMB or ROS will mean Converge will have to win twice to make the semifinals, with a possibility of dropping to the sixth seed.
5. Ginebra vs. Rain or Shine again after a few days
I intentionally left out this part of Scenario 3 to make it a separate section.
A wild scenario ensues wherein the Gin Kings and Elasto Painters might face off again in the quarterfinals after Sunday night.
If SMB wins, ROS could set up a quick rematch with Ginebra if it wins by two points or more.
Here's the wilder part: the Elasto Painters can steal the twice-to-beat edge from the Gin Kings if they win by 15-27 points.
If ROS is just too hungry for a win and stretches its winning margin to at least 29 points, Ginebra can even drop to the sixth seed.
If the final margin is exactly 14 or 28 points, the final quotients would ultimately determine the final seedings of the Gin Kings, Elasto Painters, and FiberXers.
Speaking of 14, that is the exact winning margin ROS needs to force a quarterfinal duel with Ginebra if NorthPort wins, also pending the final quotients for a four-way tie with Converge and SMB.
Then again, it would be fine for Ginebra to at least keep the game as close as possible to keep the Top 4 edge.
Follow him on X: @IvanSaldajeno
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