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| Meralco could make Converge's "prayer" to get a twice-to-beat advantage unanswered. PBA Images (file photo) |
WITH his team's part in its bid to secure a twice-to-beat advantage in the PBA Philippine Cup quarterfinals done, Converge head coach Delta Pineda is now leaving everything to God for a more favorable playoff route.
"Magsisimba at magdadasal muna kami siguro for more blessings while waiting. Dec. 21 pa yata yung last game, so magdadasal kami na sana wag bumagsak sa mabigat [na kalaban]," Pineda said after his team won a crucial game against NLEX on Wednesday night to stay alive in the Top 4 hunt.
While only God knows what the concurrent Pampanga vice governor exactly prayed for, I may have an idea what it could be.
The FiberXers are virtually tied with the TNT Tropang 5G for third place, although the latter holds third spot due to a better winning percentage.
Even if they are literally tied at 7-4, though, TNT owns the tiebreaker over Converge due to a 110-103 win in Vigan, which means the former will keep third place anyway.
The losing margin, however, can be compensated for with either the FiberXers' double-digit win against Barangay Ginebra or the Magnolia Hotshots, should one of them also end up at 7-4.
Converge's chances, though, could get complicated if Meralco also moves up to 7-4 because the latter blew them out by 21 points, 105-84, in their previous meeting.
However, the Bolts are facing the ever mighty San Miguel Beermen on Friday night, and despite already sealing the top seed in the quarterfinals, they could still consider keeping their winning streak intact ahead of the playoffs.
If SMB beats Meralco, Converge's minus-21 will be scratched off, and based on my unofficial calculation, it may suffice that the FiberXers claim the twice-to-beat edge.
First off, if Ginebra and Magnolia also lose on Sunday night, Converge will claim the quarterfinal bonus outright as the fourth seed.
As implied in my previous Game Analysis column about the Gin Kings' Top 4 chances, the FiberXers can still claim the twice-to-beat edge even if the former forces a three-way tie at 7-4.
If it's Magnolia in the three-way tie instead of Ginebra, it may benefit Converge more because the FiberXers can go up to third place as long as the Hotshots' winning margin against the Tropang 5G does not exceed 27 points.
If Magnolia surprisingly beats TNT by 28 or more, Converge will still be the fourth seed in this case.
If both the Hotshots and Gin Kings end up at 7-4, the FiberXers will likely be the third seed unless Magnolia beats TNT by 31 or more, which means Converge will settle for the fourth seed.
What if Meralco wins, though?
In the case that the Bolts, FiberXers, and Tropang 5G all end up at 7-4, Converge will fall to the fifth seed if it is just a three-way tie, and that means Converge loses the twice-to-beat advantage.
If only one team between Ginebra and Magnolia goes up to 7-4, too, Converge will also have to settle for the twice-to-win disadvantage, and the FiberXers could drop to as low as the sixth seed.
The only way for Converge to move up to the twice-to-beat zone in case of a Meralco win is the brutal five-way tie at 7-4, which will put the former at the fourth seed and the latter at the third seed.
This effectively summarizes that a win by the Bolts on Friday night will assure them a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals.
Now, what if TNT does not split its last two games?
First, if the PLDT franchise wins its remaining two games to seal the third seed at 8-3, the only way for Converge to claim the fourth seed is for Meralco to lose to SMB regardless of what happens to Ginebra.
If the Tropang 5G drop their last two matches, on the other hand, the FiberXers will take a Top 4 finish even if a four-way tie with the Bolts, Gin Kings, and Hotshots ensues.
Based on how the games will be played in order this weekend, though, it is safe to deduce that Converge could be praying for a Meralco loss to San Miguel first.
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